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ECHO share price

MANUAL$114.08

$60your $92 downside target ↓ is on this slider$180

SPCX share price (projection)

MANUAL$160.95

$80IPO price: $135$400

The arb

Effective price paid per SPCX share via ECHO

$126.10

for SPCX trading at $160.95 = 21.7% discount

SpaceX value per ECHO share

$145.61

0.905 SPCX per ECHO share

Discount / premium to SPCX

−21.7%

vs. buying SPCX directly

Implied NAV per ECHO share

$145.61

SpaceX stake + stub value

Upside to NAV

+27.6%

if discount closes fully

Total stake value

$42.2B

262.2M SPCX shares

Discount in dollars

+$31.53

per ECHO share vs implied NAV

Advanced assumptions

Value of non-SpaceX assets per ECHO share (the “stub”: AT&T cash, Boost, DISH TV, Hughes, retained spectrum, minus remaining debt, taxes, and up to ~$2.9B of Auction 113 re-auction exposure, roughly $10/share)$/share

Haircut to SPCX share count (Seller Notes gap if the payoff exceeds $8.5B, creditor claims, or pledges before the 2027 delivery)0%

Use diluted ECHO share count (+58M shares from convertible notes)

Defaults are deliberately conservative: stub = $0 means you’re valuing Boost Mobile, DISH TV, Hughes, the $20.25B net AT&T cash, and remaining debt at a combined net zero. Set your own number. Base figures: 262,187,213 SPCX shares owed (SpaceX S-1 / A&R LPA, $11.117B at $42.40 post-split), 289,813,488 ECHO shares outstanding (Q1 2026 10-Q). Shares deliver at the Spectrum Acquisition Closing, targeted ~Nov 30, 2027 (SpaceX may accelerate). Key risks: EchoStar skipped a $183M interest payment on the DISH DBS notes on June 1, 2026 and is using the 30-day cure window while it waits on the AT&T closing cash; the SPCX shares arrive as restricted stock.

EchoStar’s SPCX shares are contractual consideration, not yet delivered; they arrive as restricted stock (Rule 144 / registration rights apply).
Data sources: EchoStar 10-K/10-Q & 8-Ks, SpaceX S-1. For educational purposes only — not financial advice.